Republicans forced to choose ‘least bad’ legislative redistricting
Madison homeowners can take down their yard signs reading “This Time, Fair Maps” after Gov. Tony Evers Monday 02-19-24 signed into law new legislative district maps that could tilt the table well to his side of the partisan aisle. We say that because we’re bad losers and because Democrats are just a little too giddy.
Ben Wikler, chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, described the new legislative maps as “a sea change.” Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, a Republican, said the maps Evers signed were “the most Republican-leaning maps out of all the Democrat-gerrymandered maps” before the Janet Spell-It-With-Me high court. The Wall Street Journal is apoplectic:
The Badger State Supreme Court engineers new legislative maps that could soon turn Madison into St. Paul. The Evers map is an audacious gerrymander that heavily favors Democrats. Chunks of Madison and Eau Claire are spread into districts in surrounding counties.
— ‘Wisconsin’s progressive gerrymander coup‘
The WSJ cites a a Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce analysis that predicts Evers’ maps will flip the Republicans’ 22-11 majority in the Senate to an 18-15 Democratic majority by 2028. The 64 to 35 GOP advantage in the Assembly reverses to Democrats 52, Republicans 47. That seems hyperbolic. (Also, a Badger basketball score before AJ Storr signed on.)
→ Compare new maps with the old
Another indicator: Evers’ maps pits Republican incumbents against each other in 15 districts, but pairs incumbent Democrats in just 2. (Of course, there ARE more Republicans — but 15 to 2?) In 4 of the new districts, Republican and Democratic incumbents would face each other. Republicans contended that was egregious gerrymandering; that, for instance, pairing incumbent senators Duey Stroebel (District #20) and Dan Knodl (#8) could have been avoided by moving just four people.
None of toss-up districts in Madison area
Craig Gilbert at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel judges it this way:
• In the Assembly, 45 districts are drawn more Democrat than Republican, 46 districts are more Republican than Democrat. That leaves 8 districts that are more likely to be a toss-up. None in the Madison area.
• In the Senate, 14 districts lean Democrat, 15 districts Republican. The other 4 districts are competitive. None here in south-central part of the state, either.
John Johnson of the Lubar Center at Marquette Law School may be the most politically neutral observer. He sees Democrats winning 46 seats in the Assembly, up from the current 35 but still a 53-46 minority. Confirming the Wall Street Journal’s analysis, he finds that the Madison area (south-central Wisconsin) is redrawn to yield 16 Democrat seats, up from 12. “None of these are particularly competitive.” Evers’ map draws 2 Democrat seats in Eau Claire — up from its single seat today. Same in La Crosse. Racine and Kenosha will see 3 Democrats, rather than 2.
To win an Assembly majority in November, Democrats must win all of the seats which lean toward them, plus four of the 7 districts with a single-digit Republican lean.
To win a majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to win the 10 seats with a double-digit Democratic lean, all 6 seats that lean their way by a single digit, and one of the 2 seats with a single-digit Republican lean. Both of those seats are in the Milwaukee suburbs.
Blaska’s Bottom Line: Republicans should still keep their advantage but a lot depends on top of the ticket races. We still think Democrats replace Biden with someone fresh and cogent. Will Republicans do likewise? Is Eric Hovde the answer to Tammy Baldwin?
“Will Jessica discover Chester’s affair? Will Benson discover Chester’s affair? Will Benson care?These questions — and many others — will be answered in the next episode of … Soap.”
25 responses to “This time, Democrat(ic) maps!”
[…] This post originally appeared at https://davidblaska.com/2024/02/21/this-time-democratic-maps/ […]
Instead of all this hand-wringing you guys need to go out and find the very best people to run. Keep running election denying, fake electors, deniers of women’s rights, appointment blocking dip-shits and it will hurt you. good luck.
For the first time in my memory, you are right this time. Hello, blind squirrel….
Typical of Cons, they’re so used to the scales being tipped in their favor, when faced with equality they feel cheated.
Rollie…buddy…please note that it’s a fact-based Reality (bolstered by the observation of Über Lefty Phil Hands) that realizes it’s weenie whiny Lefty whimpering inconsolably; to wit:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5ba9e19c5159061b53e9d8d4bcf910cb6db4ee9974149c6f086e9283629c4ec3.jpg
The Gotch
You realize the joke in that cartoon is that Evers outraged the far left by signing actually fair maps, instead of a Democratic gerrymander, right?
Ah…yes; and thank you.
The Gotch
“before AJ Storr signed on.”
What a GET, he, am I right?
His Phi Slamma Jamma from last night was #2 on ESPN’s Sports Center Top Ten Plays Of The Day, his 2nd appearance this season!
ON WISCONSIN
The Gotch
“Republicans forced to choose ‘least bad’ legislative redistricting”
Cry me a river.
Evers’ map is more fair than the Putin Party’s 2011 extreme gerrymander which they developed in secret. And more fair than the even worse 2021 “least change” (from 2011) map which our GOP Supreme Court ordered.
GOP games ended when Wisconsin voters put Janet P. on the court with an 11 point margin. Wisconsin also voted twice for our non-GOP governor. Democracy in action.
This has to be one of the most contradictory columns I’ve ever read. You start blaring in your post title that these are “Democratic Maps” and than admit in the end that more of the seats still lean GOP?
Lol please, spare us your phony outrage.
Not as many Republican seats as there should be.
how many should there be?
Based on what? I grant you there’s a small handful of fishy districts like 42 and 48 that extend further into rural territory from Madison than they should, but the rural areas they extend into are virtually all purple or blue anyway.
If that’s your concern, there are many ways to draw the map more compactly and with fewer boundary splits while still arriving at basically the same partisan balance as our new map. One such example is linked below. Despite Scott Walker and Robin Vos’ favorite talking points there are many blue-leaning areas outside of Madison and Milwaukee. So claiming the GOP is somehow entitled to more Districts is suspect at best.
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f34115bf-b331-46d3-8071-76894efcb71b
Whatever happened to communities of interest? Compactness?
You may need to work on your reading comprehension Mr. Blaska. I guess you missed the part where I specifically said they’re more compact: “there are many ways to draw the map more compactly and with fewer boundary splits while still arriving at basically the same partisan balance as our new map.” And by splitting fewer boundaries it does maintain more communities of interest. https://davesredistricting.org/join/f34115bf-b331-46d3-8071-76894efcb71b
(And for the record our new map also blows our old map out of the water by all of three measures: compactness, boundary splits, and communities of interest – that is unless you claim that DeForest and Watertown are part of the same community of interest, or Deerfield and Oconomowoc – as they were under our old maps.)
Don’t take my word for it though, Dave’s redistricting has a handy “compare” tool where you can directly compare the metrics of all those maps.
Now comes the US Congressional maps.
Now Madisonians can take down their yard signs?! Really? The sign’s true purpose is to display to one and all (including those, like myself, who don’t give a rat’s a$$) the progressive credentials of Madison’s upper-middle class, white elites. I routinely see bumper stickers with Russ Feingold’s name on them. Asking Madisonians to retire their yard signs is asking them to surrender their carefully curated identities.
Yeah, and I see MAGAets sign up and down hwy 13. So what. Maybe click the heels of your gold sneakers together three times and they will disappear.
Progressive yard signs are akin to their COVID masks—they’re more of a morally superior look-at-me statement than anything else. Except that the masks let them take their grandstanding politics on display everywhere while normal people wish they would give it a rest.
So wearing a red hat and gold sneakers is not a look at me statement? Give that a rest. Are you saying Covid was fake? Tell that to the nurses at UW. Tell tRump to stop his grandstanding BS. “I built a border wall twice the length of the Grand Canyon.” Horse crap. Your gold hero is fulll of crap.
“Are you saying Covid was fake? Tell that to the nurses at UW.”
Quit with the straw men—I never said or implied that. I’ve had COVID multiple times despite being vaccinated, boosted, and wearing a mask in high-risk areas. I stopped doing the latter as soon as the science clearly said that masks are largely useless in controlling a pandemic and realizing that COVID isn’t that bad for most people. Funny how the lefties screamed about following the science until the science said that our entire approach to the pandemic was wrong and that masks are essentially worthless in combatting it. Their demagoguery has eroded trust in our public health institutions for at least a generation.
“Your gold hero is fulll of crap.”
More straw men. He’s not my hero—he’s a belligerent, egomaniacal bully and I wish he would go away. But I’m at least honest enough to admit that I was better off under him than Biden and almost certainly will be again.
“they’re more of a morally superior look-at-me statement than anything else. “
Bravo Indigo
November Golf Oscar!
Lefty, to their eternal peril, judges the value of their comical stupidity by the number of emotionally gratifying endorsements it provides.
They could be as wrong as could be (per usual), but if it’s acknowledged by like-minded half-wits, and supplies that all important endorphin surge, they display a goofy Crazy Guggenheim grin and consider it a win.
The Gotch
Despicably detestable Lefty (forgive the redundancy) Ichabod Evers now wants the WI Supreme Court to review the congressional maps which HE DREW.
Hypocrisy; Thy Name Is Lefty!
The Gotch
Leaving out some pretty important context there sir: Namely that he drew those maps to comply with the strict, and made-up, “least-change” metric imposed by the state Supreme Court in 2022. The maps he endorsed prior to that metric being imposed, drawn by the People’s Maps Commission, were far different.
[…] districts that reach into the countryside precisely to dilute the rural vote. (“This time, Democrat(ic) maps!) […]