and Paul Fanlund v John Nichols.
Like any public opinion poll, there’s enough wiggle room to satisfy Harry Truman’s two-handed economist* in the latest Marquette Law School poll released today. For one thing, it was conducted before Sara Rodriquez pulled out and David Crowley got back in, which limits its predictive value.
Professor Charles Franklin’s poll showed nonetheless than Francesca Hong had nearly doubled her support among Democrat(ic) voters to 26% from 14% in the last poll, conducted in April. Significantly ahead of Mandela Barnes’ 15%. Still 45% remain undecided 20 days out from the August 11 primary election. Yet, some 80,000 early voters proved how stupid early voting really is. And the WI Elections Commission, once the bête noire of Republicans, refuses to allow Democrats a do-over.
The Marquette Poll shows that Hong has room to roam, given that only 10% of registered Democrat(ic) voters disdain socialism while 54% love collectivism; a significant 36% have yet to render a verdict. (Tom Tiffany will help them decide.) Among all registered voters, Democratic Socialists have a net 24 point UN-favorabilty rating, which reinforces the night sweats Capital Times publisher Paul Fanlund relates:
Tiffany appears to be a weak, extremist candidate in what looks like a Democratic wave election cycle, but Democrats appear capable of screwing this up. An element of that fear for me is that center-left votes could splinter in a fashion that allows state Rep. Francesca Hong, a Democratic socialist, to be nominated with strong backing from a narrow but hard-core far left.
* (Truman was frustrated with economists who kept saying “on the other hand.”)
Oddest of the odd is that in a head-to-head match-up with certain Republican nominee Tom Tiffany, Hong would tie! Even crazier, Mandela Barnes would win by 5 percentage points, Rodriguez would have won by 4. Maybe she should get back in! The sitting lieutenant governor is the only Democrat (of the five listed) with an favorability rating among all registered voters — barely, at plus +1 point. the next best showing, Tom Tiffany at minus -1 point. The consensus most moderate Democrat one might think would do well against a Republican — namely, Joel Brennan — still loses!
More confounding, respondents told Marquette pollsters that they hate Democrats as a party — their net disapproval rating is a minus -23 — worse than Republicans, who are at minus -19.
But keep Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Tom Tiffany. The President is 18 points under water here in Wisconsin, compared to only a minus -3 in February. Tony Evers, on the other hand, Truman economists, has a net approval rating of plus +7 points — in the last poll, approval minus disapproval was even/steven.
Guessing no candidate, Democrat or Republican will support data farms — Wisconsin is turning against them 76 to 22% from 55 to 44% opposition in last October’s poll. Francesca Hong would rather talk about that than eliminating the U.S. Senate or defunding police. Tiffany will correct that omission, too.
Blaska’s Bottom Line: Evers’ good standing has got to help Crowley, who is doing the Carhartt and pickup truck routine with Tiffany’s outdoors type. (But no oyster farmers.) Prof. Franklin vows to do a new poll next week. It would be some kind of cosmic justice that another candidate drops out in the meantime.
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