and go bump in the night!
Blaska may be paranoid but that doesn’t mean he’s stupid. The race between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan was neck and neck until voters overcame Bedtime for Bonzo in the last week. How, given another week, Hubert Humphrey would have beaten Richard Nixon. George W. Bush was cruising until the October surprise of a drunk driving conviction. (How quaint.)
Public opinion polls (like this one) say Republicans will reclaim both chambers of Congress. Our Old Farmers Almanac says mid-term elections are five long months away. Not one of these issues, by itself, is dispositive. But cumulatively, they could move the needle:
Guns. We proceed from the notion that gun ownership is already regulated. If Congress can’t raise the minimum age of ownership to 21 there will be fallout. The federalists at the Werkes believe it is a states issue but we don’t claim to represent the majority of voters. Voters want something, even if they know there’s no big fix.
Abortion. “Democrats can win this fall if they … make Roe [the] law in January 2023,” one partisan hopes. Unless Democrats demand abortion up to delivery, that is. Republicans are already backtracking saying the expected court decision only pushes the issue back to the states.
Donald Trump and January 6. Denying that Donald Trump encouraged and abetted the poorly planned (but planned it was) insurrection convinces no one except RITOs who have glugged the Kool Aid. Now the Proud Boys join the Oath Keepers indicted for seditious conspiracy. All Trump supporters. Nice company.
Ukraine. If there is one area Joe Biden has performed reasonably well it is in aiding doughty Ukraine. Ukraine is erasing memories of our disastrous bug out from Afghanistan.
Biased News Media. Case in point: The Wisconsin State Journal’s irresponsible attempt to link Ron Johnson’s support for secure borders to the Buffalo massacre. (Called out here.)
Some Republicans. Democrats will try to make as the face of Republicans nut cases like Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Mo Brooks, Madison Cawthorn, etc.
Republicans got this going for us:
The economy. Inflation at levels not seen since Jimmy Carter 40 years ago. We’re reminded every day at the gas pump and the supermarket check out line. Retirement plans are reeling from the stock market roller coaster. When it’s easier to find fentanyl than baby formula …
Crime. San Francisco will recall its district attorney and Los Angeles is poised to recall its. That’s Nixon goes to China stuff. Madison’s Police Civilian Oversight Board is a running gag. Meanwhile, Joe Biden is still trying to reform the police.
Woke cancel culture. Americans are tired of being told they are irredeemably and institutionally racist. Don’t want drag queen story hour at their kids’ kindergartens. Condemned for laughing at Blazing Saddles. Resent being frog-marched through Woke re-education camps at their workplace.
The Border. A nation that can’t control its own borders is dysfunctional.
Socialism. Try as they might, Americans aren’t buying the Karl Marx handbook on class envy. Suspicious that Democrats’ answer to every government failure is more government. Madison WI public schools can’t spend all the money the feds have shoveled at them! (Read & Weep.)
Some Democrats. AOC and her Defund-the-Police Squad are the faces of the Democrat(ic) party. So, too, is Nancy Pelosi and the gerontocracy. Creaky old Joe Biden — let’s be honest — needs more nappy time.
Blaska’s Bottom Line: What do they say about counting chickens?